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October Housing Effect on US

October Housing Effect on US, just missed expectations

October Housing Market just missed expecations

The Housing Market Peaked in July 2018

I’ve been in the financial (international banking and accounting) for 22 years, thus seen plenty peak housing markets.  I’m sharing my expert number with you to help you understand what is behind the numbers.

Summary

  1. U S Census Bureau Report
  2. Regional Housing
  3. Home Builders Housing

US Census Bureau Report

Tuesday morning, the U.S. Census Bureau reported that housing starts increased 1.5% month over month in October to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.228 million, up from September’s revised rate of 1.21 million.

However, below expectations of an increase to a 1.23 million rate of sales. With October’s reading, housing starts are down 2.9% from the same time last year.

By Regional Basis

By region, on a monthly basis, total housing starts were up 32.9% in the Midwest (+5.0% YoY) and 4.7% in the South (-3.4% YoY).

However, working to offset these gains, starts fell 4.6% in West (+10.6% YoY) while plummeting 34.1% in the Northeast (-40.0% YoY).

Home Builders Housing

What the Home Builds looking at the the projections for Housing Market

As for building permits, units authorized in October fell 0.6% month over month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.263 million, in line with expectations of 1.26 million. This follows a revised September reading of 1.27 million. With September’s monthly decline, permits are down 6.0% from the same time last year.

Breaking the headline reading down further, permits for single unit homes fell 0.6% on a monthly basis while permits for complexes with two-to-four units fell 5.0% month over month in October. Permits issued for complexes with five or more units were unchanged from the previous month. By region, on a monthly basis, total permits advanced 21.1% in the Northeast (-5.0% YoY) and 9.4% in the Midwest (-5.1% YoY), while falling 2.4% in the South (+0.2% YoY) and 7.9% in the West (-17.2% YoY).

All in, I believe the reading serves to back our view that an aggressive Fed is making debt-inducing purchases such as homes, simply affordable due to the impact on mortgage rates, which increase monthly payments

– this is, in turn, causing builders to slow down on the pace of home starts in fear that demand will begin to wane in coming months.

The Fed is mostly in control of where we are and can speed the process up or slow it down depending on the pace of the action they take regarding rate hikes. The thinking is that given the prolonged lead times in building new developments, builders won’t continually start new projects if they fear an economic slowdown is on the horizon.

US Economic Roaring, Will Global slowdown comes to US Shores

US Economic Roar

But, Will Global slowdown comes to US Shores, PLUS the outlook for Black Friday and Christmas

I’m seeing a shift in the global economy, but the US economic outlook is still strong.  Brexit is still a hot topic to the European Union (EU), thus imports will be higher this year than last year.  The Holidays season starts this week with Black Friday, then Christmas.  

Summary

  • Jobs outlook in the US
  • Brexit, EU or global issue??

US Commerce Department Report

The Thursday retail and food-services sales rose 0.8% in October to $511.5 billion, exceeding expectations of a 0.5% monthly advance. With October’s reading, U.S. retail sales are up 4.6% from the same time last year

FEDs outlook

Fed Chair Powell, who on Wednesday (November 14, 2018) while speaking with Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan, appeared to indicate his growing concerns of the worldwide slowdown starting to reach the U.S

FEDs Rate Hike

 On a different Positive View – Keeping in mind that I’m currently viewing anything indicative of a slowdown as a positive as it may cause Fed Chair Jerome Powell to reconsider his three rate hikes in 2019 forecast – core retail sales (i.e., retail sales excluding autos, gas, building materials, and food services) were up 0.3%

US Economic Outlook

  • Non-store Retails sales
  • Sporting Goods Sales
  • Restaurant/Bars Sales

The Department of Labor reported that initial jobless claims for the week ending November 10 were 216,000, an increase of 2,000 from the previous week’s unrevised level of 214,000. The reading came in 4,000 claims above expectations of 212,000. Importantly, the four-week moving average for claims (used as a gauge to offset volatility in the weekly numbers) was 215,250, an increase of 1,500 from the previous week’s unrevised average of 213,750. The low rate of layoffs reflects a strengthening labor market as claims have remained below 300,000 — the threshold typically used to categorize a healthy jobs market – for an incredible 193 consecutive weeks, the longest streak for weekly records dating back to 1967. The previous longest stretch ended in April 1970 and lasted for 161 weeks.

Brexit, EU or global issue?

For two years, observers have speculated that June 2016, Brexit campaign in the U.K. served as a petri dish for Donald Trump’s Presidential campaign in the United States. Now there is new evidence that it did. Newly surfaced e-mails show that the former Trump adviser Steve Bannon, and Cambridge Analytica, the Big Data company that he worked for at the time, were simultaneously incubating both nationalist political movements in 2015.  In an interview with France President Emmanuel Macron states,

How and whether all of these pieces fit together is the subject of Mueller’s investigation, but the lack of a similar single, overarching research in the U.K. has led critics to call for one. Emma Briant, for instance, who has submitted the new e-mails to the British government for further investigation, told openDemocracy that “this evidence shows that Banks was seeking foreign funding for Brexit from the very beginning.”

The current global expansion will likely continue into next year, given that the US is running large fiscal deficits, China is pursuing loose budgetary and credit policies, and Europe remains on a recovery path. But by 2020, the conditions will be ripe for a financial crisis, followed by a global recession (over 60 since World War II).  This is two reason why

 

  • US economy is overheating, inflation is rising above target, and will be 3.5% by 2020 (current rate is 2%).
  • US Trade dispute with China, Europe, Mexico, and Canada are leading to slower growth and higher inflation

Why is Warren Buffet Buying Banks?

Why is Warren Buffet Buying Banks?

Buffet on Banks

I’ve been in the financial industry for 20 years doing international accounting for banks, working in Japan, Singapore, New Zealand, Korea, Malaysia, England, Hongkong (before China took over), China, etc.  The world is changing much faster than expected and I’m here to help you the new world!!!

 

Summary Blog

  • What is a 13F?
  • Warren Buffett current bank holdings
  • Warren Buffet buying banks

What is a 13F?

It’s the time of the quarter when the 13F filings of the mutual fund organization, hedge funds, and large investment managers get released. For those unfamiliar with 13Fs, it is a document filed to the Security and Exchange Commission (SEC) that provides insight into the holdings fund managers ended the quarter with. One such disclosure that is always reviewed by investors and market commentators alike is from famed, long-term value investor Warren Buffett.

The one group that Buffett increased his stake in significantly is the financials, which have been beaten down all year on concerns of loan growth and fears of a pending recession. But Buffett clearly sees long-term value in the sector, adding to current positions in several names such as Bank of America (BAC) and Goldman Sachs (GS), maintaining his stake in Wells Fargo (WFC)

Now we would be remiss if we did not mention what is currently going at Goldman Sachs. The bank has been in the headlines day after day, a result of the news that a few former executives were involved in the wrongdoings of 1MDB Scandal. In addition to the legal troubles and reputation damages, the investment firm’s past dealings netted them roughly $600 million in fees, which the government of Indonesia wants back.

That’s not to say they think that the headlines or the investigations are over, and it is still possible that the bank could be charged with a “failure to supervise.” However, an interesting point they raised was, “when we look back on this moment two or three years from now, will this have been a good time and price at which to have bought the stock? We suspect that given the ~$202 stock price and $186 TVB today that we think will grow to ~$213 by the end of 2019, the answer will be yes.”

Warren Buffett current bank holdings

Warren Buffett Buying Banks

New positions in JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and PNC Financial (PNC

JPMorgan ended the quarter with a tangible book value per share of $55.68. Based on Wednesday’s close, that puts the price-to-Tangible book value at 1.9 times. JPMorgan has earned this type of premium over its peers because of its massive balance sheet and best-in-show return on equity, but Buffett wouldn’t have taken a stake in the bank for the first time now if he didn’t think it deserved a higher multiple.

PNC shares have ranged between $116.55 and $163.59 during the past 12 months and closed on Wednesday at $134.13.

FIJI, the HOT New Vacation Spot Young Business Professional

FIJI, the HOT New Vacation Spot Young Business Professional

Professional Relaxing

FIJI, the HOT New Vacation Spot Young Business Professional

The NEW Fiji

Fiji

Professional Relax

SUVI, Capital of the New Paradise 

In Suva, you’ll be spoilt for choice when it comes to accommodation. From historic hotels boasting grand architecture to modern apartments; affordable motels to luxurious private villas, Suva has a range of accommodation to suit all budgets.

Suva has dining options that range from affordable eateries to high-end restaurants. Indo-Fijian and Chinese food is the most popular, but you’ll also find a good selection of cafés, bistros and restaurants specialising in Italian, seafood and Japanese cuisine. After dark Suva’s nightclub district comes alive with a number of great bars, pubs and clubs to choose from.

Let’s GO

Cloud 9

Work Hard, Play HARDER

Pizza in the Ocean

I was served Italian Wood Fire Pizzas on board catering for non-vegetarian, vegetarian and gluten-free guests. These scrumptious pizzas are hand made and cooked by our Fijian chef for your convenience.

Music

Depending on the day I have a forward thinking music policy with international DJs playing on board with signature sounds. However, If there is a big group of you and you request to have a DJ on board during the week, we will definitely facilitate this.

WATER SPORTS

I traveled in a group and would like to pre book exciting activities then we have partner companies that can have water sports available for you on the day (parasailing, jet skiing, snorkeling gear, paddle boards…)

Shark Diving

Shark Diving Without Cage

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Location - Beqa Lagoon, Fiji

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Dive within the Shark Reef Marine Reserve

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Guided trip, perfectly safe, exhilarating & intriguing tour

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Fiji’s first marine sanctuary dedicated to the research and protection of Sharks in Fiji.

I dove this while staying at pearl south pacific resort fiji.  Surrounded by 5 different types of sharks, Reef Shark, Bull Shark, Black Tip Shark, Lemon Sharks, & Lemon Sharks

The Dark Side of Paradise 

Before Paradise

Cannibalism has a long history in the Fiji Islands, which were previously known as the Cannibal Isles. According to the Tour Guide, there is archeological evidence to suggest that the practice of consuming human flesh dates back over 2,500 years in the islands. Excavations at certain sites have uncovered various human remains, with evidence of this brutal practice clear, due to butchering scars on the bones.

The last known recorded incident of cannibalism in Fiji was in the 1860s, with the death of missionary Reverend Thomas Baker.

Best Resorts in Fiji

  • 2019 taxation updates

    2019 taxation updates

    by | Nov 16, 2018 | Blog

    2019 Tax Support For Individuals, Couples, & Small Business

    What is New Year Tax Impact to Individuals, Couples, and Small Business.

    Individual Taxes

    For tax year 2019, the adjusted gross income amount used by joint filers to determine the reduction in the Lifetime Learning Credit is $116,000, up from $114,000 for tax year 2018.

    Estate Tax

    Estates of decedents who die during 2019 have a basic exclusion amount of $11,400,000, up from a total of $11,180,000 for estates of decedents who died in 2018.

    Standard Deductions

    The standard deduction for married filing jointly rises to $24,400 for tax year 2019, up $400 from the prior year. For single taxpayers and married individuals filing separately, the standard deduction rises to $12,200 for 2019, up $200, and for heads of households, the standard deduction will be $18,350 for tax year 2019, up $350

    Hello! I’m Mario 

    Certified Accountant, Project Management Professional, and Doctine in Accounting

    A senior Financial leader with 22 years of expertise in capital markets, debt markets, IPO readiness, and global Mergers & Acquisitions. Dedicated to the administrative, financial, and risk management operation of the organization. Leverages experience in fiscal and operational strategy, metrics, and control system monitoring to preserve company assets and report accurate financial results.

    My Expertise

    Lower Your Stress, Anxiety, & Depression

    Provided strategic, operational, and technical advisory direction for the various lines of business; weighted financials, portfolio forecasts, and instituted continuous planning. Oversaw internal and external audits, met with regulators on supporting documentation.

    Health Flexible Spending Account

    For the taxable years beginning in 2019, the dollar limitation for employee salary reductions for contributions to health flexible spending arrangements is $2,700, up $50 from the limit for 2018.

    Warns Public About SSA Scam

    The acting Inspector General of Social Security, Gale Stallworth Stone, is warning citizens about an ongoing caller ID “spoofing” scheme misusing the Social Security Administration’s (SSA) national customer service phone number. SSA has received numerous reports of questionable phone calls displaying SSA’s 1-800 number on a caller ID screen. This is a scam; citizens should not engage with those calls or provide any personal information.

    Capital Gains

    Capital gains rates will not change for 2019. However, the break points for the rates will change. IRS Tax anticipates that the maximum zero rate amounts and maximum 15% rate amounts will break down as follows: 

    Tax Bracekt Frequently Asked Questions